Atlassino Academy · Video poker · Lesson 8
Video poker myths
A count of hands since the last royal flush feels like a promise. Here is why the next hand is dealt from a fresh deck, and what a rate of once in so many hands does and does not say.
A count of hands since a royal flush was last dealt reads 800,000. Is the next deal more likely to be a royal flush?
The short answer
No. Five cards from a full deck make a royal flush in 4 of the 2,598,960 possible deals, once in 649,740, and that is the chance on every hand: the first hand of the evening, the hand after a long wait, and the hand right after a royal flush. The technical standards for machines in CABA and in Buenos Aires Province ask for exactly this: every hand is drawn from a shuffled deck, and what a game returns may not adapt to the payouts before.
A count of 800,000 hands since a royal flush was last dealt, and five face-down cards of the next deal. The chance that the next deal is a royal flush is once in 649,740 deals, the same as on the first hand of the evening.
Mayaformer floor supervisor · manners, money and breaks
I hear it at the machines all the time: this one hasn’t dealt a royal flush in ages, so one must be close. The feeling is easy to understand, and it costs money, because it keeps people in their seats for a promise nobody made.
Every hand starts from a shuffled deck
At the start of each game or hand, the cards are drawn from one or more randomly shuffled decks, and a card once drawn does not go back into the deck unless the rules of the game allow it.
- The hand endsEvery card leaves the screenHeld cards and drawn cards alike.
- Back to a full deckAll 52 cardsNothing from the last hand stays out of the deck.
- ShuffledFor the next hand aloneThe order of the deck is new.
- Five new cardsThe next dealDealt from that deck, and only from that deck.
The game has to tell you how many cards a deck holds and how many decks are in play, and jokers and wild cards have to look different from the other cards. The counts on this page are for one 52-card deck with no jokers; a machine that plays with jokers or with more decks has other counts, and its help screens say which.
When a machine simulates a live casino game, such as poker, blackjack or roulette, the probabilities of the live game apply to the simulated one.
No machine is due, hot or empty
A game may not adapt its theoretical return to the player on the basis of earlier payouts, and the mathematical chance of any event in a paid game stays the same, unless the game’s own artwork says otherwise. The Buenos Aires Province standard adds that a game may not announce what is about to pay. A long run without a royal flush is a fact about the past, and the past is not in the deck.
| Hands already played without a royal flush on the deal | Runs that got that far | After that point, a royal flush dealt once in about … hands |
|---|---|---|
| 0, right after a royal flush was dealt | 10,000 | 639,983 |
| 300,000 | 6,224 | 644,155 |
| 600,000 | 3,902 | 643,659 |
| 1,200,000 | 1,559 | 635,210 |
| 2,000,000 | 452 | 652,106 |
The same 10,000 runs in every row. Fewer runs last that long, but the right-hand column stays close to once in 649,740.
A machine that has just dealt a royal flush is neither empty nor hot: the first row of the table is that case, measured from the hand right after one was dealt.
What once in so many deals means
Once in 649,740 deals is a count of the deck alone: 4 royal flushes, one in each suit, among the 2,598,960 ways five cards can come from 52. It needs no pay table and no hold, because it is the five cards dealt before anything is held. A royal flush made on the draw comes more often, and how much more depends on which cards you hold, and so on the pay table of the machine; no Argentine document we read prints a video poker pay table, so this page does not count it.
Each bar is the chance of going that many hands without a single royal flush on the deal. The middle bar is exactly as many hands as the average gap between them, and that bar is far from empty.
A rate per hand is not a schedule. Nobody’s turn comes up after so many hands: a royal flush can be dealt twice in one evening or not at all over a great many evenings, and the rate on each hand stays the same throughout.
The machine does not see your hold
When you press DRAW, the cards you did not hold are replaced. A machine does not have to wait for your hold to draw those cards: the CABA standard accepts drawing the random numbers for the replacement cards at the first hand, provided the replacement cards are used one after another as they are needed, and the stored values of the generator are encrypted by means the city lottery approves. That is what the standard accepts, not a description of every machine on every floor.
Five dealt cards, and behind them a line of five face-down replacement cards in a fixed order. Whatever you hold, the replacement cards come in from the front of the line.
| Cards you hold | Cards that come in from the line |
|---|---|
| None | All five, in the order of the line |
| Two | The first three in the line |
| Four | The first card in the line |
The Buenos Aires Province standard says the same from the other side: cards drawn from a deck are used at once under the rules of the game, and a machine does not throw them away by adapting to the player.
Wherever the replacement cards are drawn, the chance of any card turning up has to be the chance a live deal gives. A machine that changed the next card to suit a hold would be keeping odds of its own, and the odds of the live game are the odds it has to keep.
Mayaformer floor supervisor · manners, money and breaks
A long wait for a royal flush is exactly where I see people raise the bet or stay past the time they meant to leave.
Decide the money and the time before you sit down, and when either one runs out, stand up. A royal flush you have been chasing is not owed to you, and more hands only add more of the machine’s price.
If it stops being fun
If gambling stops being entertainment, help is available. Minimum entry age: each province sets its own. Where we found the rule or regulator that sets it, we cite it on the page; those we found set it at 18. More on responsible gaming.
Show all provinces
If you are thinking about suicide, call 135 or 0800 345 1435 from anywhere in the country
Practice: hands since the last royal
A count of hands since a royal flush was last dealt stands above five face-down cards. Pick a forecast for the next deal and say how sure you are of the forecast; then the run behind the answer appears: many runs of hands played until a royal flush is dealt, and how often it came once the count had been reached.
Nothing is scored here, and nothing is bet.
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The practice table needs JavaScript. Here is one hand from it, with the answer.
HANDS SINCE A ROYAL FLUSH WAS LAST DEALT
800,000
THE NEXT DEAL
The count of hands since a royal flush was last dealt reads 800,000. What is the chance that the next deal is a royal flush?
- Higher than on an ordinary hand 800,000 hands without a royal flush on the deal do not make one due. The next hand is dealt from a deck shuffled for that hand, and the 800,000 hands before are not in that deck.
- The same as on any hand, and I am sure of it Every hand starts from a shuffled deck, so the chance after 800,000 hands without one is the chance on any deal: once in 649,740 deals.
- Lower than on an ordinary hand A long wait does not push the royal flush further away either. After 800,000 hands the deck for the next hand is the same full deck as on the first hand of the evening.
- The same as on any hand, but I am not sure The forecast is right, and the run below is the reason to drop the doubt: the hands played after 800,000 hands without a royal flush on the deal brought one about as often as hands in general did.
Out of 10,000 runs played until a royal flush was dealt, 2,920 went 800,000 hands or more without one. In the hands played after that point, a royal flush was dealt once in about 638,586 hands; across every hand of the same runs, once in about 648,355. A count of hands since a royal flush was last dealt describes the past; the deck for the next hand knows nothing of the count.
Every count in the practice run is checked the same way: a run of hands played until a royal flush is dealt, repeated many times, and a look at how often it came after the count was reached.
How the practice run works
Where the runs come from. Each count has its own run of 10,000 repetitions, worked out when the page is built: the number of hands until a royal flush is dealt is drawn again and again at the chance one deal has, once in 649,740, because the hands are independent. For each count, the run keeps the repetitions that got that far without one and counts how many hands it then took. The random draws use a fixed seed, so the same page always shows the same runs.
Two answers count. The forecast that the next deal has the same chance as any deal counts whether you are sure of it or not; the run is there to settle the doubt.
Your progress stays in this browser, and nothing is sent anywhere.
Check yourself
Mayaformer floor supervisor · manners, money and breaks
Five quick ones. Pick an answer, then check it. No timer, no points: just whether it stuck.
Back to the question we opened with. After 800,000 hands without a royal flush on the deal, the next hand is dealt from a deck shuffled for that hand, and the chance that it is a royal flush is the chance on any deal.
Further reading
18+ under each province’s rules · Play responsibly · the helplines are further up this page
Further reading
- Resolución de Directorio 30/2020, Anexo 1: Estándares Técnicos · Lotería de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires S.E.The technical standards for gaming machines in the city: a shuffled deck for every hand, replacement cards, the odds of a live game, and a return that does not adapt to past payouts.
- Resolución 705/13: requisitos para máquinas electrónicas de juegos de azar · Instituto Provincial de Lotería y Casinos de la Provincia de Buenos AiresThe technical rules for gaming machines of the province: the odds of a live game in a simulated one, cards used as drawn, and no payout announced ahead of time.
How it’s worked out
Rules, numbers, sources and hosts
Where this happens. Every machine on this page is a video poker machine standing in a room you can walk into, one hand at a time.
Rules. Every rule on this page comes from two technical standards for gaming machines: annex 1 of resolution 30/2020 of the board of the CABA city lottery, and resolution 705/13 of the Buenos Aires Province lottery and casino institute, whose text ties it to the bingo halls of provincial law 13.063. We read the annex of resolution 30/2020 as it was published in the city’s official bulletin; the bulletin’s own page for the resolution records that it amends the city’s technical standards of 2018, resolution 131/2018, and when we read that page it did not mark resolution 30/2020 as no longer in force. That is the bulletin’s record of the text, not a report of what any room checks today. Neither standard is about video poker alone: they speak of gaming machines and of games that simulate a live game. The replacement cards drawn at the deal are what the CABA standard accepts, not a report of what any one machine does. That the order of the line does not depend on your hold is our reading of its words that the replacement cards are used sequentially when they are needed.
Numbers. The chance that a deal is a royal flush, once in 649,740, is 4 royal flushes among the 2,598,960 five-card deals of one 52-card deck, counted when the page is built; it needs no pay table and no hold. The chance of going a given number of hands without one follows from that rate, hand after independent hand. The runs in the table and in the practice are repeated draws at the same rate with a fixed seed. Every figure carries a machine-readable key and is recomputed on every build.
What is deliberately absent. No Argentine document we read prints a video poker pay table, a strategy or a return for a named game, so this page has no pay table, no rate of a royal flush made on the draw, no advice on which cards to hold and no money amount. There is no figure per hour either: no document we could read gives how many hands an hour people play video poker.
Sources. Every rule and every claim on this page carries a button with the sentence it rests on, in the standard’s own Spanish, the publisher who wrote that sentence and the date we read it.
Hosts. Maya and Leo are illustrated characters. Their backstories, a former floor supervisor and a former dealer, are written for the course: neither is a real person, and neither speaks for any casino. The rules and numbers on this page come from the sources it cites, not from their experience.
No promise. Video poker is played against the house. Knowing that no machine is due keeps a long wait from setting your bet or your time; nothing on this page changes the chance of any hand, and nothing here says how an evening at a machine would end.
No machine is due
Un juego no deberá adaptar su retorno teórico al jugador basado en pagos anteriores;Free translation: A game shall not adapt its theoretical return to the player based on previous payouts;
la probabilidad matemática de cualquier evento de oportunidad que ocurra en un juego pagado será constante, a menos que lo contrario sea indicado en la ilustración de arte.Free translation: the mathematical probability of any chance event occurring in a paid game shall be constant, unless otherwise indicated in the artwork illustration.
Section Cap. 3: 3.3.2 ciclo de juego, 3.3.3 información al jugador, 3.5 juego justo, 3.6 tipos de juegos (3.6.2 barajas, 3.6.3 póker), 3.9 doblar/arriesgarse; Cap. 1: retorno mínimo teórico
El juego no deberá publicar “próximas ganancias”, por ejemplo tres (3) veces el pago próximo a aparecer.Free translation: The game must not display “upcoming wins”, for example three (3) times the next payout to appear.
Section Requisitos de la máquina de juego, software: reglas de juego, generador de números aleatorios, porcentajes de pago, juegos con bonificación (4-1 a 4-4)
Replacement cards drawn at the deal
Es aceptable extraer números aleatorios para las barajas de reemplazo en la primera mano, con la condición que las barajas de reemplazo sean utilizadas secuencialmente cuando se necesiten, y siempre que los valores almacenados del RNG estén encriptados utilizando los medios aprobados por LOTBA;Free translation: It is acceptable to draw random numbers for the replacement cards in the first hand, provided that the replacement cards are used sequentially as they are needed, and provided that the stored RNG values are encrypted by means approved by LOTBA;
Section Cap. 3: 3.3.2 ciclo de juego, 3.3.3 información al jugador, 3.5 juego justo, 3.6 tipos de juegos (3.6.2 barajas, 3.6.3 póker), 3.9 doblar/arriesgarse; Cap. 1: retorno mínimo teórico
The odds of a live deal
cuando el dispositivo de juego ofrezca una partida que implique una simulación de un juego de casino en vivo, tal como el Póquer, Veintiuno (Black Jack), Ruleta, las mismas probabilidades asociadas con el juego en vivo serán aplicadas en el simulado.Free translation: when the gaming device offers a game that involves a simulation of a live casino game, such as Poker, Twenty-One (Black Jack) or Roulette, the same probabilities associated with the live game shall be applied in the simulated one.
Section Cap. 3: 3.3.2 ciclo de juego, 3.3.3 información al jugador, 3.5 juego justo, 3.6 tipos de juegos (3.6.2 barajas, 3.6.3 póker), 3.9 doblar/arriesgarse; Cap. 1: retorno mínimo teórico
las mismas probabilidades asociadas al juego en vivo serán evidentes en el juego simulado.Free translation: the same probabilities associated with the live game shall be evident in the simulated game.
Section Requisitos de la máquina de juego, software: reglas de juego, generador de números aleatorios, porcentajes de pago, juegos con bonificación (4-1 a 4-4)
Nothing is announced ahead
Un juego no deberá adaptar su retorno teórico al jugador basado en pagos anteriores;Free translation: A game shall not adapt its theoretical return to the player based on previous payouts;
la probabilidad matemática de cualquier evento de oportunidad que ocurra en un juego pagado será constante, a menos que lo contrario sea indicado en la ilustración de arte.Free translation: the mathematical probability of any chance event occurring in a paid game shall be constant, unless otherwise indicated in the artwork illustration.
Section Cap. 3: 3.3.2 ciclo de juego, 3.3.3 información al jugador, 3.5 juego justo, 3.6 tipos de juegos (3.6.2 barajas, 3.6.3 póker), 3.9 doblar/arriesgarse; Cap. 1: retorno mínimo teórico
El juego no deberá publicar “próximas ganancias”, por ejemplo tres (3) veces el pago próximo a aparecer.Free translation: The game must not display “upcoming wins”, for example three (3) times the next payout to appear.
Section Requisitos de la máquina de juego, software: reglas de juego, generador de números aleatorios, porcentajes de pago, juegos con bonificación (4-1 a 4-4)
A shuffled deck each hand
Al inicio de cada juego y/o mano, las barajas deben ser extraídas de uno o más mazos barajados aleatoriamente.Free translation: At the start of each game and/or hand, the cards must be drawn from one or more randomly shuffled decks.
Una vez que se hayan extraído barajas del mazo/s, las mismas no serán devueltas al mazo o los mazos, excepto si las reglas del juego lo permiten;Free translation: Once cards have been drawn from the deck/s, they shall not be returned to the deck or decks, unless the rules of the game allow it;
Section Cap. 3: 3.3.2 ciclo de juego, 3.3.3 información al jugador, 3.5 juego justo, 3.6 tipos de juegos (3.6.2 barajas, 3.6.3 póker), 3.9 doblar/arriesgarse; Cap. 1: retorno mínimo teórico
No machine is due
Un juego no deberá adaptar su retorno teórico al jugador basado en pagos anteriores;Free translation: A game shall not adapt its theoretical return to the player based on previous payouts;
la probabilidad matemática de cualquier evento de oportunidad que ocurra en un juego pagado será constante, a menos que lo contrario sea indicado en la ilustración de arte.Free translation: the mathematical probability of any chance event occurring in a paid game shall be constant, unless otherwise indicated in the artwork illustration.
Section Cap. 3: 3.3.2 ciclo de juego, 3.3.3 información al jugador, 3.5 juego justo, 3.6 tipos de juegos (3.6.2 barajas, 3.6.3 póker), 3.9 doblar/arriesgarse; Cap. 1: retorno mínimo teórico
El juego no deberá publicar “próximas ganancias”, por ejemplo tres (3) veces el pago próximo a aparecer.Free translation: The game must not display “upcoming wins”, for example three (3) times the next payout to appear.
Section Requisitos de la máquina de juego, software: reglas de juego, generador de números aleatorios, porcentajes de pago, juegos con bonificación (4-1 a 4-4)
A shuffled deck each hand
Al inicio de cada juego y/o mano, las barajas deben ser extraídas de uno o más mazos barajados aleatoriamente.Free translation: At the start of each game and/or hand, the cards must be drawn from one or more randomly shuffled decks.
Una vez que se hayan extraído barajas del mazo/s, las mismas no serán devueltas al mazo o los mazos, excepto si las reglas del juego lo permiten;Free translation: Once cards have been drawn from the deck/s, they shall not be returned to the deck or decks, unless the rules of the game allow it;
Section Cap. 3: 3.3.2 ciclo de juego, 3.3.3 información al jugador, 3.5 juego justo, 3.6 tipos de juegos (3.6.2 barajas, 3.6.3 póker), 3.9 doblar/arriesgarse; Cap. 1: retorno mínimo teórico
The game tells you the deck
El juego debe alertar al jugador la cantidad de barajas en un mazo y la cantidad de mazos que se están jugando;Free translation: The game must inform the player of the number of cards in a deck and the number of decks being played;
Cartas joker y comodines deben ser distinguibles de las restantes cartas.Free translation: Joker cards and wild cards must be distinguishable from the remaining cards.
Section Cap. 3: 3.3.2 ciclo de juego, 3.3.3 información al jugador, 3.5 juego justo, 3.6 tipos de juegos (3.6.2 barajas, 3.6.3 póker), 3.9 doblar/arriesgarse; Cap. 1: retorno mínimo teórico
The odds of a live deal
cuando el dispositivo de juego ofrezca una partida que implique una simulación de un juego de casino en vivo, tal como el Póquer, Veintiuno (Black Jack), Ruleta, las mismas probabilidades asociadas con el juego en vivo serán aplicadas en el simulado.Free translation: when the gaming device offers a game that involves a simulation of a live casino game, such as Poker, Twenty-One (Black Jack) or Roulette, the same probabilities associated with the live game shall be applied in the simulated one.
Section Cap. 3: 3.3.2 ciclo de juego, 3.3.3 información al jugador, 3.5 juego justo, 3.6 tipos de juegos (3.6.2 barajas, 3.6.3 póker), 3.9 doblar/arriesgarse; Cap. 1: retorno mínimo teórico
las mismas probabilidades asociadas al juego en vivo serán evidentes en el juego simulado.Free translation: the same probabilities associated with the live game shall be evident in the simulated game.
Section Requisitos de la máquina de juego, software: reglas de juego, generador de números aleatorios, porcentajes de pago, juegos con bonificación (4-1 a 4-4)
No machine is due
Un juego no deberá adaptar su retorno teórico al jugador basado en pagos anteriores;Free translation: A game shall not adapt its theoretical return to the player based on previous payouts;
la probabilidad matemática de cualquier evento de oportunidad que ocurra en un juego pagado será constante, a menos que lo contrario sea indicado en la ilustración de arte.Free translation: the mathematical probability of any chance event occurring in a paid game shall be constant, unless otherwise indicated in the artwork illustration.
Section Cap. 3: 3.3.2 ciclo de juego, 3.3.3 información al jugador, 3.5 juego justo, 3.6 tipos de juegos (3.6.2 barajas, 3.6.3 póker), 3.9 doblar/arriesgarse; Cap. 1: retorno mínimo teórico
El juego no deberá publicar “próximas ganancias”, por ejemplo tres (3) veces el pago próximo a aparecer.Free translation: The game must not display “upcoming wins”, for example three (3) times the next payout to appear.
Section Requisitos de la máquina de juego, software: reglas de juego, generador de números aleatorios, porcentajes de pago, juegos con bonificación (4-1 a 4-4)
Replacement cards drawn at the deal
Es aceptable extraer números aleatorios para las barajas de reemplazo en la primera mano, con la condición que las barajas de reemplazo sean utilizadas secuencialmente cuando se necesiten, y siempre que los valores almacenados del RNG estén encriptados utilizando los medios aprobados por LOTBA;Free translation: It is acceptable to draw random numbers for the replacement cards in the first hand, provided that the replacement cards are used sequentially as they are needed, and provided that the stored RNG values are encrypted by means approved by LOTBA;
Section Cap. 3: 3.3.2 ciclo de juego, 3.3.3 información al jugador, 3.5 juego justo, 3.6 tipos de juegos (3.6.2 barajas, 3.6.3 póker), 3.9 doblar/arriesgarse; Cap. 1: retorno mínimo teórico
Cards are not thrown away
A medida que se extraigan naipes de un mazo, inmediatamente serán utilizados según las Reglas de Juego (esto es, los naipes no serán descartados debido a una conducta de adaptación por parte de la máquina de juego).Free translation: As cards are drawn from a deck, they shall be used immediately according to the Rules of the Game (that is, cards shall not be discarded due to adaptive behavior on the part of the gaming machine).
Section Requisitos de la máquina de juego, software: reglas de juego, generador de números aleatorios, porcentajes de pago, juegos con bonificación (4-1 a 4-4)
Resolution 30/2020 in the bulletin
Art. 1 de la Resolución de Directorio 30-LOTBA-20 modifica el Artículo 1 de la Resolución de Directorio 131-LOTBA-18.Free translation: Art. 1 of Board Resolution 30-LOTBA-20 amends Article 1 of Board Resolution 131-LOTBA-18.