Atlassino Academy · Blackjack · Lesson 5

Why you act first, and what it costs

Where the house edge in blackjack comes from, priced hand by hand for the rules published for Córdoba casinos.

  • About 18 minutes
  • Illustrated hosts: Leo and Maya
  • Last checked 25 October 2026

Lesson 5 of the blackjack track. How a hand goes, and what hit, stand, double and split do to it, is taken for granted here. Hit, stand, double, split, declare the ace teaches them. Underneath all of those moves sits one question: where does the price of blackjack come from, and how big is it?

The dealer’s face-up card is a 6, the card the dealer goes over 21 behind more often than any other. You hold a hard 16. On an example bet of 10 units, what is your hand worth on average?

Dealer

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You

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Before we start: what would you say?

Nothing is scored here. We come back to it at the end.

The short answer

You play your own hand before the dealer plays the house hand, and a total over 21 is lost before the dealer plays — so once your own total has gone over 21, the 28.2% of hands where the dealer goes over 21 arrive a turn too late to pay you anything. The four things the table lets you do and the dealer may not are the payment for going first, and at Córdoba tables that payment falls short of the bill: played by the full chart, the house keeps 2.08% of every bet.

Leo points into an empty betting circle between two rows of three cards, the player’s row nearest the camera and the dealer’s across the table, while Maya looks down at them from the rail; no chip is left anywhere on the felt.
Leo smiling, explaining with an open hand.

Leoformer dealer · rules and maths

The question players asked me most, in all those years dealing: how is the house ahead at a game where the dealer has no skill at all? The answer is the order of play. The dealer needs no skill because the dealer goes last, and going last is worth more at this game than any decision is. So we will walk through a hand in the order a hand actually happens at the table.

The order of a hand, and what it settles

A hand of blackjack at Córdoba tables happens in the same four steps, and the price of the game is hidden in the order of those four steps rather than in any one of them.

  1. You play your hand first

    Every player gets two cards face up, and the dealer one face up and one face down; then each player in turn asks for cards or stops.

  2. Over 21, and the bet is gone

    A total over 21 is lost on its own: nobody compares it with the dealer’s total, and nobody waits for the dealer to play.

  3. Then the dealer plays the house hand

    The dealer turns the second card over, draws on any total of 16 or less, and stops on every 17 or more — the same line on every hand, against every player.

  4. Or never plays the house hand at all

    If every player has gone over 21, the dealer draws no cards for the house hand: there is nobody left to play against.

So the hands where you go over 21 and the dealer goes over 21 as well belong to the house. The rulebook says it in its own way: a dealer over 21 has lost to every player still in the game. Your bet is not in the game any more — it left the table a turn earlier.

Dealer

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You

10106699

One more thing at these tables comes after you have played: the dealer’s face-down card. A dealer blackjack shows itself only when that card is turned over, and then it takes every bet on your hand, a second bet or a split included. A dealer showing a 10 holds blackjack on 7.7% of hands, and a dealer showing an ace on 30.8%. Not every rulebook in the country settles this the same way: One game, three rulebooks sets them side by side.

How often the dealer goes over 21

How often the dealer goes over 21 is the number players lean on at the table, and it is a real number. Played out across a whole shoe, the house hand goes over 21 on 28.2% of hands — about one hand in 3.5. The dealer does not go over 21 as often behind every card, though: almost all of the difference hangs on which card the dealer has face up, and that face-up card is the only card of the dealer’s you can read before you decide anything.

How the dealer’s hand ends, by the face-up card % of hands, by the dealer’s final total · eight decks, dealer stands on all 17s
Dealer shows1718192021Black­jackOver 21
Weak cards: 2 to 6
214.013.513.012.411.8–35.4
313.413.112.512.111.5–37.4
413.112.512.111.611.2–39.5
512.212.211.811.210.8–41.8
616.610.610.610.29.7–42.3
Strong cards: 7 to ace
736.913.87.87.97.4–26.2
812.936.012.96.96.9–24.4
912.011.835.212.06.1–22.9
1011.211.211.234.13.57.721.2
Ace13.013.113.113.15.430.811.5

Only the dealer’s face-up card changes from row to row. The eight decks and the Córdoba dealer rule are the same in every row, and the bar in the last column is the share of hands that end over 21 behind that one card.

  • Behind a 7, an 8, a 9, a ten or an ace the house hand goes over 21 on 11.5% to 26.2% of hands — and one of those five cards is the face-up card 61.5% of the time.
  • Behind a 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 the house hand goes over 21 on 35.4% to 42.3% of hands. Far more often, that is, and on the smaller share of the deals: the dealer is in trouble much less often than a table full of players feels it to be.

The dealer going over 21 never reaches a hand that has already been lost. That is the whole asymmetry of blackjack in one sentence. How often the dealer goes over 21 is counted with the house hand played out to the rule on every deal, whether a dealer at a table would play that hand or not, and by the time a dealer does play it, some of the bets on the table have already been picked up — yours among them, on every hand where your own total went over 21 first.

Two rows, one above the other. In the upper row your own ten, six and nine make twenty-five, and the bet in front of those three cards is picked up. In the lower row, a turn later, the dealer draws to twenty-five as well, and the bet from the upper row is no longer on the table.

1 · Your turnEvery player finishes a hand before the dealer touches the house hand.
10106699
Twenty-five, over 21. The bet is picked up at this moment, and your hand is out of the round for good.
2 · The dealer’s turn, one turn laterPlayed out only while somebody else at the table is still in the round.
66101099
Twenty-five as well, over 21. Nothing of yours is left on the table for the dealer going over 21 to pay.

The hands that can go over 21 are yours to play first

Going first would cost you nothing at all if your own hand could not go over 21. Your hand can go over 21, and a great many starting hands are one card away from it — while a starting total of eleven or less cannot be taken over 21 by any single card, because the largest card in the deck is a ten.

Three lengths. The first length, a hard twelve to sixteen, and the second, every other pair of cards, come out close to the same size; the third, a starting total of eleven or less, is much the shortest of the three.

A hard 12 to 16A single card can take a hand of this size over 21, and on a hard 16 most of the shoe does.38.5%one hand in 2.6
Every other pair of cardsA hard 17 to 20, or any two cards with an ace in them, two cards making 21 included.the rest of the deals
A total of 11 or lessNo single card can take a hand of this size over 21: the largest card in the deck is a ten.21.3%

A hard 12 to 16 meets a dealer’s 7 or better more often than not — the hand where the choice costs you either way, decided before the dealer decides anything.

Leo in a work jacket, one open hand held out to the side, pointing something out.

Leoformer dealer · rules and maths

Here is the part that surprises people. Take the friendliest spot on the whole table: the dealer’s face-up card is a 6, the card the dealer goes over 21 behind more often than any other, and you are already finished on a hard 17. There is nothing left for you to decide on that hand. Watch how little the hand is worth anyway.

Dealer

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You

101077

A finished hard 17 against a 6 is worth almost exactly nothing — a fraction above it, on a hand you cannot play badly because there is nothing left to play. Three things can become of the bet on it, and there is no fourth:

A finished hard 17 against a 6How the dealer’s hand ends behind a 6, and what each ending does to your bet
The dealer endsShareYour bet
over 2142.3%is paid
on 17, level with you16.6%comes back
on 18 or better41.1%goes to the house

The dealer going over 21 pays this hand, and a finish of 18 or better takes the bet away — and those two shares come out nearly level, behind the dealer’s weakest card, on a hand with nothing whatever wrong with it. That near balance is what going first costs you on your strongest hands.

What a hard total is worth against a 6The average result of each move, per hand, on an example bet of 10 units
Your hard totalIf you stopIf you take a card
16−1.57 units−4.27 units
17+0.09 units−5.06 units
18+2.82 units−6.05 units

The hard 16 in the first row is the hand you were asked about before we started; only from 17 up does stopping average more than nothing. A plus sign means this hand is in your favour on average; it can still lose, and over all hands the house keeps its edge.

A hard 16 against a 6 is not a special case. From hard 12 up to hard 16, against every one of the ten cards the dealer can show — fifty hands in all — no move averages more than nothing, and a hard 17 gets above nothing against a 6 alone. Picking the smaller of two losses is the whole job on those hands, and that job is what the next lessons of the track are for, starting with hard totals.

What the table gives you back

A game built on nothing but that order of play would be unplayable, and nobody would sit down at it twice. So the rules of the table hand some things back to your seat, and the dealer gets none of them. At Córdoba tables there are four.

Four things you may do and the dealer may notThe payment for going first, at Córdoba table rules
At your seatYouThe dealer
Two cards to 21paid 3 to 2 — half as much again as any other hand of yours that is paidtakes the bets and no more: the house is never paid odds
A second betas much again on two cards that make 11, for exactly one more cardnever
A pairtaken apart into two hands, once a handplays the same two cards as one hand
The right to stopstand on 12 to 16 — the plainest of the four, and the easiest to missmust draw to 16

There is no fifth: the Córdoba rulebook names no surrender, so at these tables nobody gives a hand up for half the bet.

Which is why playing your own hand the way the dealer is obliged to play the house hand is not a neutral habit. Copying the dealer hands three of those four things straight back to the house: no second bet, no split and no stopping on a hard 16 — a blackjack of your own paid at three to two is the only one of the four that survives the habit. The decisions on your hand are yours alone; advice from anyone else at the table counts for nothing.

Three ways of playing a hand without a chartWhat the player decides in advance, and what it does to every hand after that
The habitWhat it does to every hand
Never going over 21Never take a card that could take the hand over 21, which means stopping on every hard 12 or more, whatever the dealer’s face-up card is.
Playing like the dealerPlay your own hand by the rule the dealer follows: draw to 16, stop on 17, and use neither the second bet nor the split.
Assuming a tenPlay every hand as though the dealer’s face-down card were already a ten, whatever the face-up card is.

The three habits differ only in what the player settles on before the cards come out: that the hand must never go over 21, that the dealer’s rule is the right rule, or that the dealer’s face-down card is a ten. Playing like the dealer is the middle habit of the three, and the only one of the three with a price on it in the practice table further on.

Played by the full chart, these Córdoba rules still leave the house 2.08% of every bet. The house keeps its edge; the chart only makes it smaller — the correct move cannot decide how a hand ends; what it lowers is the house advantage and the cost of playing. Neither that share nor any amount on this page is what one evening will do: a single evening lands a long way from an average in either direction.

Maya with a hand on her chest, speaking gently and seriously.

Mayaformer floor supervisor · manners, money and breaks

The price follows the number of hands, and the number of hands follows how long you sit. So the one decision that moves the price most is made before the first card is dealt: how long you are staying, and how much money the evening gets. Settle how long and how much before you sit down, or the shoe will settle both for you.

And if the money on the table starts to feel like money you need, no arithmetic on this page is the thing to reach for. Stop there, and call one of the lines below.

If it stops being fun

If gambling stops being entertainment, help is available. Minimum entry age: each province sets its own. Where we found the rule or regulator that sets it, we cite it on the page; those we found set it at 18. More on responsible gaming.

Show all provinces
0800-666-6006Buenos Aires City (CABA) · Línea de orientación por juego problemático (LOTBA) · Monday to Friday, 9 to 17
0800-444-4000Buenos Aires Province · Programa de Prevención y Asistencia al Juego Compulsivo (IPLyC)
0800-777-2983Cordoba · Línea 0800-777-AYUDA (Lotería de Córdoba) · 24 hours
0800-268-5640Santa Fe · Línea gratuita de la APRECOD (Santa Fe) · Every day, 8 to 24
0800-888-2202Entre Rios · Departamento Juego Responsable (IAFAS, PREVENJUEGO)
0261-424-7536Mendoza · Programa de Juego Responsable (IPJyC) · Monday to Friday, 8 to 14
0800-888-5836Misiones · Programa de Juego Responsable del IPLyC S.E. (0800-888-LUDO)
0800-888-2008Chaco · Línea de Juego Responsable (Lotería Chaqueña)
0299-403-8900Neuquen · Líneas de contacto, orientación y tratamiento (IJAN, juego responsable) · Monday to Friday, 8 to 15
0800-222-1700Rio Negro · Línea de Orientación al Jugador Problemático (Lotería de Río Negro)
02901-433515Tierra del Fuego · Departamento Juego Responsable (IPRA, Ushuaia)
0800-555-7678Tucuman · Juego Responsable, Ley 8986 (Caja Popular de Ahorros)
0800-999-1314San Juan · Línea gratuita del Programa Provincial de Juego Responsable (Caja de Acción Social) · Monday to Friday, 08 to 12

If you are thinking about suicide, call 135 or 0800 345 1435 from anywhere in the country

Practice: play like the dealer?

Nine hands, and the same question on each one: play the hand the way the dealer is obliged to, or use what the table gives you? Each move is named for you, because choosing between moves yourself is what the later lessons of the track are for. What these hands price is the difference between the dealer’s rule and the table’s move, on an example bet of 10 units, at Córdoba table rules.

Nothing is scored here and there is no level to open: on all the hands but one the answer is the same, and a score would only measure how quickly you noticed that. The hand worth slowing down for is the hard 12 against a 7 — on that hand the dealer’s rule and the chart ask for exactly the same card, and both answers count.

The practice table needs JavaScript. Here is one hand from it, with the answer.

These table rules · eight decks · the dealer stops on every 17 · a double on 11 only · one split · no surrender

Dealer

66

You

101066

The dealer has no choice on any hand: draw on 16 or less, stop on every 17 or more — never double, never split. Play your hand that way, or use what the table gives you?

The answer: Use what the table gives you: stop on 16.

The dealer may not stop on 16; you may. On an example bet of 10 units, stopping on this hand is worth −1.57 units a hand on average and taking a card −4.27 units, so playing it the dealer’s way costs 2.70 units every time. Both amounts are below nothing: the right to stop makes the loss smaller, it does not turn the hand around.

Si la sumatoria de las cartas es 17, 18, 19, 20, o 21 ( Black Jack ) habrá definido su jugada no pudiendo extraer mas cartas .-

Free translation: If the sum of the cards is 17, 18, 19, 20, or 21 (Black Jack) he will have settled his play and may not draw more cards.

En caso de que la sumatoria sea menor a diecisiete ( 17 ) extraerá cartas hasta llegar a esa cifra o más, en cuyo caso plantará definiendo su juego.-

Free translation: If the sum is less than seventeen (17) he will draw cards until reaching that figure or more, in which case he will stand, settling his hand.

Lotería de Córdoba S.E. (portal) · Reglamento del juego «Black Jack» · read
El Tallador debe obligatoriamente pedir naipes siempre que su puntuación fuere de DIECISEIS (16) PUNTOS O MENOR. Habiendo obtenido 17, 18, 19,20 ó 21, está obligado a PLANTAR. Cuando se diese un AS, deberá utilizarlo como ONCE en la medida que no se exceda.

Free translation: The Tallador must draw cards whenever his score is SIXTEEN (16) POINTS OR LESS. Having obtained 17, 18, 19,20 or 21, he is obliged to STAND. When an ACE is dealt, he must use it as ELEVEN as long as he does not go over.

IPLyC Buenos Aires (Sistema de Normas) · Resolución 1452/12, Anexo I: Marco Normativo de los Juegos de Azar Artesanales y Electrónicos · section Capítulo 9, Black Jack modalidad carta descubierta: Reglamento del Juego (9.1 a 9.14) · read
Por su parte el crupier tiene reglas rígidas a las que atenerse: si su puntuación inicial fuera 16 o menor está obligado a tomar otra carta, y se plantará siempre que su puntuación alcance 17.

Free translation: For its part, the croupier has strict rules to follow: if his initial score is 16 or less he is obliged to take another card, and he will always stand once his score reaches 17.

IPJyC Mendoza (SAPIA, Res. Dir. 812-16) · Información sobre juegos vivos o de paño: JUEGOS CARTEADOS, pagos, probabilidades · read

The other hands work the same way: the same question, another hand, and every amount worked out by the same engine that priced the hard 16 against a 6 further up.

How the practice table works

The hands. All of them are fixed, not dealt: each one is a position where the dealer’s rule and the chart for these table rules part company, plus one where they agree. The amounts are the average result of each move over every two-card hand of that total, from the same engine that works out the tables on this page, and a cost is the difference between two amounts already rounded to the hundredth — so the subtraction on the screen comes out.

No score. There is no round, no threshold and no level: this table is a price list in the shape of a hand, not a test. Your mistakes are not kept, and nothing is sent anywhere.

The example bet. Every amount is for an example bet of 10 units. It is an example, not a suggested bet; at a bet twice as large each amount is twice as much. There is no balance here and nothing adds up from one hand to the next.

Check yourself

Maya with a finger raised and a knowing look.

Mayaformer floor supervisor · manners, money and breaks

Five quick ones. Pick an answer, then check it. No timer, no points: just whether it stuck.

A question marked “New situation” asks you to use the lesson on a case it did not show.

1Your hand goes over 21. A card later, so does the dealer’s. Who takes the bet?

Show the answer

Answer: The house. Your bet is settled by your own total and nothing else. The dealer may not even reach 22: where every player has gone over 21, the dealer draws no cards for the house hand at all. The hands where both of you go over 21 belong to the house, and there are enough of those hands to matter.

  • The house. Your bet was settled the moment your own total went over 21, before the dealer played at all. Nothing that happens after that moment can reach the bet, and the dealer going over 21 happens after it.
  • Nobody: the hand is a tie. A tie needs two hands to compare, and yours had already left the table.
  • You: the dealer went over as well. There is no clause for that, and the dealer may not even play the hand out — if every player at the table has gone over 21, the dealer draws no cards at all.
2At these table rules the dealer goes over 21 on 28.2% of hands, and a player using the full chart is still charged 2.08% of every bet. Which of these explains it?

Show the answer

Answer: The dealer going over 21 pays you only while your own hand is still in play. The dealer going over 21 is the only way a hand you cannot improve is ever paid — and it reaches only the hands still in play. You act first, so the hands you break never get as far as that 28.2% at all.

  • A dealer who goes over 21 still keeps the bets of the players who stopped. The rulebook says the opposite: a dealer over 21 has lost to every player still in the game. The catch is the word “still”.
  • The dealer going over 21 pays you only while your own hand is still in play. And the hands your hand is no longer in are the hands you went over 21 on first, one turn earlier. The dealer going over 21 is worth nothing to a bet that has already been picked up.
  • The 28.2% is too high: the dealer checks for blackjack first. There is no check at these tables: the dealer’s second card lies face down until every player has finished. The figure counts every hand the dealer can end with, blackjacks included.
3The dealer’s face-up card is a 6, the card the dealer goes over 21 behind most often, on 42.3% of hands. You hold a finished hard 17. On an example bet of 10 units, that hand is worth:

Show the answer

Answer: Almost exactly nothing: +0.09 units a hand. Three shares and no fourth: 42.3% paid, 16.6% level, 41.1% to the house. A finished 17 against the dealer’s weakest card is worth +0.09 units on an example bet of 10 units — a hand that has nothing wrong with it and nothing left to decide, and it is only just above nothing.

  • Almost exactly nothing: +0.09 units a hand. Standing on 17 is paid on the 42.3% where the dealer goes over 21, comes back on the 16.6% where the dealer also finishes on 17, and goes to the house on the 41.1% from 18 up. Paid and taken very nearly cancel out, behind the card the dealer goes over 21 behind most often.
  • Something clearly in your favour: a 6 is the card the dealer goes over 21 behind most often. A 6 is that card, and being behind it is still only just enough. The deals where the dealer does not go over 21 are not harmless: 41.1% of hands finish on 18 or better and take the bet.
  • Well below nothing, like the 16. Not at these tables: with the dealer stopping on every 17, a finished 17 against a 6 sits a fraction above nothing, at +0.09 units. The 16 is the hand that stays below nothing whichever way you play it.
4A pair of 8s against a 6. The dealer’s rule draws to 16; the table lets you split. On an example bet of 10 units, playing it the dealer’s way costs, on average: new situation

Show the answer

Answer: 7.09 units more than the table’s move. The rules of the table let you take a pair apart and play two hands, once a hand. The dealer has no such option, and on this hand that option is worth 7.09 units on an example bet of 10 units.

  • Nothing: 8 and 8 is 16, and 16 has to be drawn to. The dealer must draw to it. You may take the two cards apart instead, and the rules of the table say so. That difference is the lesson.
  • 2.70 units more. That is the cost of drawing to a hard 16 against a 6 instead of stopping on it — the right to stop, not the split. The split is worth more here.
  • 7.09 units more than the table’s move. Splitting turns one hand of 16 into two that each start with an 8: +2.82 units a hand on an example bet of 10 units against −4.27 units for drawing to 16. A plus sign means this hand is in your favour on average; it can still lose, and over all hands the house keeps its edge.
5At Córdoba tables the dealer’s second card is dealt face down and turned over only after every player has finished. Does that mean the dealer plays first? new situation

Show the answer

Answer: No: you still play your hand before the dealer plays theirs. The order is the one the rulebook prints: the players finish, then the dealer turns the second card over and completes the house hand by a fixed rule. What the face-down card changes is when a dealer blackjack shows itself — after you have played, and a blackjack turned up then takes every bet on your hand.

  • No: you still play your hand before the dealer plays theirs. A hand over 21 is still lost before the dealer plays, and the dealer still has no decision to make. The face-down card only means that a dealer blackjack shows itself after you have played.
  • Yes: the dealer has already decided the hand. The dealer decides nothing. The second card is dealt, not chosen, and the rule the dealer follows is printed in the rulebook before anyone sits down.
  • Yes: a face-down card means the dealer plays first. The order of play does not change: every player finishes, then the dealer turns the card over and completes the house hand.

And the question at the start

Less than nothing, whichever way you play it — the third of the three answers. A hard 16 against a 6 is worth −1.57 units on an example bet of 10 units if you stop and −4.27 units if you take a card: both amounts are below nothing, and the better of the two is only the smaller loss. A 6 really is the card the dealer goes over 21 behind most often, on 42.3% of those hands, and that is still not enough to make the hand worth having — because you had to play your hand first, and most of the shoe takes a hard 16 over 21. That is the whole lesson in one hand.

Where this is played, and further reading

18+ under each province’s rules · Play responsibly · the helplines are further up this page

Further reading

How it’s worked out

Rules, numbers and hosts

Rules. The figures on this page follow the rules published for Córdoba casinos: at least eight decks (the figures take exactly eight), the dealer stopping on every 17, blackjack paid 3 to 2, a double only on a two-card 11, one split a hand, no surrender, and a dealer’s second card turned over after the players, whose blackjack takes every bet on the hand. It is a preset for learning, not a statement about any one casino: the room settles anything its rulebook leaves open.

Numbers. Every figure on this page is worked out when the page is built, by our blackjack engine. The dealer’s table goes through every order in which the dealer’s cards can come out of an eight-deck shoe with the face-up card removed, and plays the house hand out to the rule every time — including the hands a real dealer would not play at all, because every player had already gone over 21. The 28.2% figure weights those ten face-up cards by how often each comes out of a full shoe; your own two cards are not taken out, so with them in view the figures shift slightly. The value of a hand is the average result of that move over every two-card hand of the total, per bet, shown for an example bet of 10 units, each average rounded to the hundredth first, so a cost is always the difference of two amounts shown. Against a 10 or an ace the averages include the hands where the dealer turns up a blackjack, because at these tables that card is turned after you play. The rulebook pays a higher total and does not speak of an equal one; the figures count an equal total as a tie. The house edge assumes the full chart, pairs and the ace you declare included, and cards shuffled after every hand.

What is deliberately absent. There is not one cell of the strategy chart on this page: when to take a card and when to stop is the subject of the lessons that follow this one, and this page prices the order of play instead. There is no price of an hour, because no document we could read gives a number of hands an hour for these tables, and there is no figure here for how an evening ends either, because nothing on this page can produce one.

Hosts. Leo and Maya are illustrated characters. Their backstories, a former dealer and a former floor supervisor, are written for the course: neither is a real person, and neither speaks for any casino. The rules and numbers on this page come from the sources it cites, not from their experience.

No promise. Blackjack is played against the house. Everything on this page is about the size of the price and where it comes from; nothing here says the game can be played at no cost, and nothing here says how an evening will end.

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